Positive Expected Value (+EV) Picks
Updated in Real Time
Last updated: October 21, 2025
AI-powered analysis scans every sportsbook to find bets where you have a mathematical edge. Our advanced system removes the vig to show you where the true opportunities are.
How We Calculate Positive EV
Expected Value (EV) is the mathematical foundation of profitable sports betting. We calculate it using this formula:
EV = (Probability × Win Amount) - (1 - Probability) × Bet AmountRemove the Vig
We calculate true probabilities by removing sportsbook margins
AI-Powered Analysis
Machine learning identifies patterns humans miss
Real-Time Updates
Odds change constantly - we track every movement
Example Calculation
EV Calculator
Interpretation
This bet has zero expected value. No edge for either side.
EV Formula
EV = (Probability × Win Amount) - (1 - Probability) × Bet AmountKelly Criterion: f = (bp - q) / b (using 25% fractional Kelly for safety)
Master EV Betting with Our Guides
Learn everything you need to know about positive expected value betting with our comprehensive educational resources.
What is +EV Betting?
Complete guide to understanding positive expected value betting, including the formula, examples, and why it's the foundation of profitable sports betting.
Kelly Criterion Guide
Learn how to use the Kelly Criterion to optimize your bet sizing, maximize long-term profits, and manage risk effectively.
How to Find +EV Bets
Step-by-step guide to identifying +EV opportunities, including tools, strategies, and common mistakes to avoid.
No-Vig Odds Explained
Understanding vig (juice) in sports betting and how to calculate true probabilities by removing the sportsbook's built-in edge.
Features That Give You an Edge
EV Ranking System
High/Medium/Low instant visual indicators help you quickly identify the best opportunities without complex analysis.
True Probability Analysis
We remove the vig to show you the real odds, not the inflated sportsbook prices that hide true value.
Smart Bet Sizing
Kelly Criterion recommendations tell you exactly how much to bet based on your bankroll and edge.
One-Click Sportsbook Access
Place bets instantly with direct links to DraftKings, FanDuel, and other major sportsbooks.
AI Assistant
Ask our AI about any pick for instant explanations, analysis, and betting strategy guidance.
Bet Tracking
Track your performance with integrated portfolio management and ROI analytics.
Understanding Your EV Pick Card
Interactive Component Breakdown
This is a static breakdown of the component card for how we display EV picks within the OpenWager app. Each card provides instant access to all the critical information you need to make informed betting decisions.
EV Ranking Badge
High/Medium/Low visual indicator for quick opportunity assessment
True Probability
Real odds after removing sportsbook vig and margins
Smart Bet Sizing
Kelly Criterion recommendations for optimal bankroll management
One-Click Actions
Place bets, track performance, and ask AI questions directly from the card
Performance Dashboard
Disclaimer: This dashboard shows hypothetical performance data based on backtesting. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always bet responsibly and within your means.
Performance by Sport
NFL
45 betsNBA
38 betsMLB
42 betsNHL
31 bets9-Month Performance Trend
Key Insights
Best Performing Sport
NFL shows the highest win rate (72.1%) and ROI (15.8%), indicating strong market efficiency analysis.
Consistent Performance
Average EV of 4.2% demonstrates consistent edge identification across all sports and bet types.
Ready to Start Finding +EV Picks?
Join thousands of bettors using our AI-powered platform to identify profitable opportunities across all major sportsbooks.
Frequently Asked Questions
Positive EV means a bet has a mathematical edge over the sportsbook. It's when the true probability of winning is higher than what the odds suggest, giving you a long-term profit advantage.
We use the formula: EV = (Probability × Win Amount) - (1 - Probability) × Bet Amount. Our AI removes the vig to find true probabilities and calculates your edge.
No. Positive EV means you'll profit long-term, but individual bets can still lose. It's about consistent edge over hundreds of bets, not winning every single one.
We recommend having accounts at 3-5 major sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, etc.) to access the best odds and maximize your EV opportunities.
Aim for 3-5% EV on spreads/totals, 5-7% on player props, and 4-6% on moneylines. Higher EV percentages are rare but extremely valuable when found.
Use Kelly Criterion sizing: bet 1-5% of your bankroll based on the EV percentage. Our tool calculates optimal bet sizes for each pick automatically.
Market width is the difference between the best and worst odds available. Narrower markets (under 25¢) indicate sharper lines and better EV opportunities.
Our system scans odds every 60 seconds and updates picks in real-time. You'll see timestamps showing when each pick was last refreshed.
No. Our recommendations are optimal Kelly sizing, but you can bet smaller amounts. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
We cover NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, college football, and college basketball. Our AI analyzes spreads, totals, moneylines, and player props across all major markets.