How to Find Positive Expected Value Bets
Complete Step-by-Step Guide
Learn how to find +EV betting opportunities with our comprehensive guide. Includes tools, strategies, and common mistakes to avoid for profitable sports betting.
The Complete Process for Finding +EV Bets
Finding positive expected value bets is both an art and a science. While the math is straightforward, the real challenge lies in accurately estimating true probabilities and identifying market inefficiencies before they disappear. This comprehensive guide will walk you through every step of the process.
What You'll Learn
Whether you're a beginner looking to understand the basics or an experienced bettor wanting to refine your approach, this guide provides actionable strategies you can implement immediately. We'll cover everything from setting up your accounts to advanced techniques used by professional bettors.
Understand Expected Value Fundamentals
Before you can find +EV bets, you need to understand what expected value means and why it's the foundation of profitable betting. If you're new to this concept, start with our comprehensive guide on what is positive expected value betting.
Key Concepts
Expected Value: Average profit/loss per bet over time
True Probability: Real chance of winning (not sportsbook odds)
Market Inefficiency: When odds don't reflect true probability
Edge: Your advantage over the sportsbook
The EV Formula
EV = (Probability × Win Amount) - (1 - Probability) × Bet AmountPositive EV: You have an edge
Negative EV: Sportsbook has the edge
Zero EV: Fair odds, no edge
Why This Matters
Understanding EV isn't just academic - it's the difference between profitable betting and gambling. Every successful professional bettor uses EV analysis to make decisions. Without it, you're relying on luck rather than skill and mathematics.
Set Up Multiple Sportsbook Accounts
You can't find +EV bets with just one sportsbook. Different books have different lines, and the key to finding value is comparing odds across multiple platforms. Here's how to set up your betting infrastructure:
Essential Sportsbooks
Tier 1 (Must Have)
Tier 2 (Recommended)
Account Setup Tips
Take advantage of welcome bonuses and promotions
Set up alerts for line movements and new markets
Keep detailed records of all deposits and withdrawals
Test withdrawal processes before placing large bets
Important Considerations
Bankroll Management
Don't spread your bankroll too thin across too many books. Focus on 3-5 quality accounts.
Legal Compliance
Ensure all sportsbooks are legal in your jurisdiction and you meet age requirements.
Choose Your Sports and Markets
You can't be an expert in everything. Focus on sports and markets where you have knowledge and can consistently find inefficiencies. Here's how to choose your focus areas:
Best Sports for +EV
Best Bet Types
Focus Strategy
Start with 1-2 sports you know well
Master 2-3 bet types per sport
Track performance by market
Expand gradually as you improve
Pro Tip: Start Small
Don't try to bet on everything. Pick one sport and one bet type (like NFL moneylines) and become an expert. It's better to be profitable in a narrow niche than to lose money across many markets.
Calculate True Probabilities
This is where most bettors fail. You need to estimate the true probability of an outcome, not just use the sportsbook's implied probability. Here are the most effective methods:
Method 1: Historical Analysis
Analyze similar matchups from past seasons
Account for injuries, weather, motivation
Use sample sizes of 100+ games minimum
Method 2: Advanced Analytics
Use advanced metrics (DVOA, PER, etc.)
Build predictive models
Account for situational factors
Method 3: Remove the Vig
Calculate no-vig probabilities
Average odds across multiple books
Use market consensus as baseline
Method 4: Line Shopping
Find the best odds available
Identify outlier books
Act quickly on discrepancies
Common Probability Mistakes
Recency Bias
Overweighting recent results instead of using larger sample sizes.
Confirmation Bias
Only looking for information that confirms your initial opinion.
Public Bias
Following public opinion instead of doing independent analysis.
Sample Size
Drawing conclusions from too few games or data points.
Compare Odds Across Sportsbooks
Once you have your true probability estimate, you need to find the best odds available. Even small differences in odds can significantly impact your EV. Here's how to systematically compare odds:
Manual Comparison Process
Check all your sportsbooks for the same bet
Record odds in a spreadsheet or notes
Identify the best price available
Calculate EV using the best odds
Automated Tools
Odds comparison websites
Line movement alerts
Arbitrage scanners
Custom API integrations
Speed Matters
Odds change constantly, especially as game time approaches. The best +EV opportunities often disappear within minutes. Set up alerts and check odds frequently, especially:
High-Value Times
Quick Actions
Calculate Expected Value
Now it's time to put it all together. Use your true probability estimate and the best available odds to calculate the expected value. This is where you determine if a bet is worth placing.
The EV Formula
EV = (Probability × Win Amount) - (1 - Probability) × Bet AmountPositive EV (+EV)
You have an edge. This bet will be profitable long-term.
Negative EV (-EV)
The sportsbook has the edge. Avoid this bet.
Zero EV (0 EV)
Fair odds. No edge for either side.
Real Example
Result: This is a strong +EV bet with excellent value. You expect to profit $62.50 on average for every $100 bet.
Use Our EV Calculator
Don't want to do the math manually? Our odds calculator includes EV calculations, or try our automated EV Picks tool that does all the work for you.
Size Your Bets Appropriately
Finding +EV bets is only half the battle. You also need to bet the right amount to maximize long-term growth while managing risk. This is where Kelly Criterion comes in.
Kelly Criterion Formula
Kelly % = (bp - q) / bFractional Kelly Recommendations
Most successful bettors use 25-50% Kelly for safety and reduced volatility.
Bet Sizing Mistakes to Avoid
Overbetting
Betting more than Kelly recommends increases risk of ruin.
Underbetting
Betting too little limits your profit potential unnecessarily.
Emotional Sizing
Letting emotions override mathematical calculations.
Ignoring Correlation
Not adjusting for correlated bets increases overall risk.
Track and Analyze Results
Tracking your results is crucial for improving your probability estimates and refining your strategy. Without proper tracking, you can't learn from your mistakes or identify what's working.
Essential Metrics to Track
Analysis by Category
Performance by sport and league
Results by bet type (ML, spread, total)
EV range analysis (high/medium/low)
Timing analysis (pre-game vs live)
Continuous Improvement Process
Weekly Review
Monthly Analysis
Common Mistakes When Finding +EV Bets
Mistake #1: Overconfidence
Being too confident in your probability estimates leads to oversized bets and potential losses. Always use fractional Kelly and be conservative with your estimates.
Mistake #2: Chasing Losses
After a losing streak, bettors often increase bet sizes or take worse odds to "get back to even." This destroys bankroll management and EV calculations.
Mistake #3: Ignoring Sample Size
Drawing conclusions from too few games or data points. You need at least 100+ games to make reliable probability estimates.
Mistake #4: Not Acting Fast Enough
+EV opportunities disappear quickly. If you find value, place the bet immediately rather than waiting for "better" odds.
Mistake #5: Betting Too Many Games
Quality over quantity. It's better to bet 2-3 strong +EV bets per week than 10 mediocre ones.
Mistake #6: Not Tracking Results
Without proper tracking, you can't improve your probability estimates or identify what strategies are working.
Automate Your +EV Betting Process
While manual +EV betting can be profitable, automation offers significant advantages: faster execution, 24/7 monitoring, and elimination of human error. Here are your options:
Automated EV Picks
AI-powered probability calculations
Real-time odds monitoring
Automatic Kelly sizing
Instant alerts for opportunities
Custom Automation
Build your own EV scanner
API integrations with sportsbooks
Custom probability models
Automated bet placement
Try Our Automated EV Picks
Skip the manual work and let our AI find +EV opportunities for you. Our system monitors odds across all major sportsbooks, calculates true probabilities, and alerts you to the best bets with optimal Kelly sizing.
Continue Your Learning Journey
Kelly Criterion for Sports Betting
Learn how to optimize your bet sizing using the Kelly Criterion to maximize long-term profits while managing risk.
No-Vig Odds Explained
Understanding vig (juice) in sports betting and how to calculate true probabilities by removing the sportsbook's built-in edge.